Stacey Abrams underperforming with Black voters in AJC poll
July 27, 2022
Also in today’s edition of Swing State Georgia:
The ‘Big Lie’ loses out with Georgia voters.
Loudermilk maps out GOP probe of Jan. 6.
How Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district will get earmarks.
The newest AJC poll of the 2022 elections shows a possible split-ticket dynamic in Georgia this year, with GOP incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp about five points ahead of Stacey Abrams in the race for governor, and Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock with a three-point lead over Herschel Walker, which is essentially a dead heat.
But one of the most troubling findings for Democrats was tucked into the crosstabs of the race for governor. It showed wavering support for Stacey Abrams among the party’s most reliable constituency.
Georgia Democrats routinely capture more than 90% of the Black electorate, and Republicans often see it as a victory if they can crack double-digits with the voting bloc.
But the poll shows Abrams garnering roughly 80% of Black support. The other votes are split about evenly: About 10% back Kemp and about 8% are undecided.
That poses both a problem and an opportunity for the Democrat’s campaign. The problem, of course, is she can’t defeat Kemp without energizing the party’s most important bloc of voters. The opportunity is she can quickly make up lost ground by mobilizing Black voters.
In the other marquee race, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock – the state’s first Black U.S. senator – has support from about 85% of Black voters. His rival Herschel Walker, who is also Black, has about 9% support from Black voters.
One possible reason for the lagging support for Democrats? Nearly one-third of Black voters disapprove of President Joe Biden’s record as president.
These are the headline numbers from our new Georgia election poll:
BIG LIE LOSING. Nestled in the poll is the latest indication that Donald Trump’s election fraud lies have lost their potency in Georgia politics.
An AJC poll conducted in April found that Georgia Republicans were increasingly confident about the integrity of the election system.
The poll released Wednesday revealed another trend. About half of Georgia voters say they’re less likely to vote for candidates who say they believe the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump, compared to just 13% who say that stance makes them more likely to back someone.
Tellingly, a majority of Republicans – 57% – say it makes no difference to them whether a candidate promotes falsehoods about elections, and only about a quarter of GOP voters said they’d be more likely to support a candidate with those views.
That shift was clear in the May primary, when former U.S. Sen. David Perdue, U.S. Rep. Jody Hice and others who centered their campaigns on pro-Trump conspiracy theories were demolished by GOP incumbents who refused calls to overturn the election.
LISTEN UP. We posted a special edition of the Politically Georgia podcast bright and early this morning to take a look at that new AJC poll.
On the subject of Donald Trump, he was busy this morning talking about his infamous taped phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, again making his false claim that the 2020 election was ‘Rigged and Stolen.’
It was during one of those calls where Trump asked Raffensperger to ‘find’ over 11,000 votes to make Trump the winner in Georgia.
Trump posted this on his “Truth Social” page - his version of Twitter.
Swing State's paid subscribers receive text alerts from our reporting team. See below for how to sign up.
OSSOFF INVESTIGATES. Two former staffers at the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary told a U.S. Senate subcommittee Tuesday about witnessing lax oversight, unsafe conditions and multiple policy violations that were often excused at the medium-security lockup, and described unironically as “the Atlanta way.”
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Swing State Georgia to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.