New poll suggests ticket-splitting in top Georgia races

July 14, 2022

Also in today’s edition of Swing State Georgia:

• GOP Senator tries to avoid testifying in Trump probe.

• Democrats enjoy a new fundraising reality in Georgia.

• Kemp hits back at Abrams on crime.

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A new poll offers one of the clearest snapshots yet of the state’s marquee 2022 election matchups – and provides further evidence of a budding ticket-splitting trend that could help shape the November outcome.

The poll of likely voters commissioned by the Georgia chapter of the AARP shows Republican Gov. Brian Kemp with a comfortable 52-45% edge over his Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock is in a tighter contest against Republican Senate hopeful Herschel Walker.  Warnock is at 50% in the poll compared to Walker’s 47%. That’s within the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

It’s the latest survey to suggest a significant number of voters are casting bipartisan ballots, a trend we explored in an article earlier this week. Kemp outdid Walker by seven points, while Warnock garnered about 5 points more support than Abrams.

“This poll shows what we saw in June 2020 that no one really believed back then: This is a purple state,” said John Anzalone, who is perhaps best known as President Joe Biden’s pollster. “This is the new North Carolina. And this might be a ticket splitting state.”

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Other findings from the Georgia poll, which you can find at this link.

• Both candidates in the race for governor captured 95% of their party’s voters, but Kemp’s lead comes thanks to his 14-point edge with independent voters. His image with likely voters is 50% favorable and 45% unfavorable, while Abrams has a 50% unfavorable rating and 46% favorable.

• Walker leads Warnock narrowly among voters who are older than 50, while the Democrat has a 58-39 lead with women voters. Warnock’s image is evenly divided at 49-49. Walker is underwater, with a 41% favorable rating and a 49% unfavorable.

• President Biden’s approval rating stands at just 34% in Georgia - while nearly two-thirds of likely voters disapprove of his job performance. Just one-third of likely voters say the economy is working for them, and most indicate inflation or the economy are their top issues.

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AD WARS. The race for Governor in Georgia continues to take on the air of a back and forth duel. A day after Stacey Abrams released an ad featuring a law enforcement officer criticizing Gov. Brian Kemp’s public safety policies, the Republican countered with a 30-second ad and 2-minute video highlighting the story of a widow of a slain officer.